Ugly American # 24 – Market

I just did one of these a month ago, and I don’t want to go to the whip too much on Market, because some people really despise it. But a bunch of interesting (to me, at any rate) things are brewing in the secondary market, so let’s dive in!

Rachel Rising

The Hollywood Reporter broke news that Terry Moore has sold the Rachel Rising television rights to a fledgling outfit called Alcon Television Group. In fact, Rachel is their first project…you always remember your first time. Rachel will be theirs.

Now, they haven’t even hired a show runner yet, much less cut a pilot, much less had the pilot green lit. This has not stopped the secondary market from absolutely losing their shit over the comic book back issues, particularly # 1, which has closed for as much as $200 recently.

The book is legitimately scarce, and legitimately good. If for some reason your LCS has a copy of # 1 lying around for cover price, I recommend you snap that up with all due haste. Should you sell right now, though? That’s the real question, and it’s difficult to answer because there are several different flavours to the “spike on option news” game.

Is Rachel likely to act like Sixth Gun, which spiked and continued to climb, (I recently watched a CGC 9.8 copy of # 1 clear almost $900) pulling issues other than the # 1 up with it in an increasing fervor? Will she act like Mind MGMT, which crested extremely high for a couple of days and then settled in at much lower rates? There are other, more cautionary tales to be had if you dig back a little further. It wasn’t that long ago that ABC actually put Human Target on the air, starring Agent Dunham’s dead boyfriend. I can buy a copy of Human Target # 1 for $1. Not that exciting, and that show got much further than any of the aforementioned properties.

Which is sort of a long way of saying that if I could find a buyer on my copy of Rachel Rising # 1 for $200…I’d take it with a smile. Yes, there is a very small chance that you’re passing up on the next Walking Dead # 1 a little early. As I said, Rachel Rising is a legitimately scarce comic book. That kind of formula can lead to spectacular results. More likely, though, the end result is something like Global Frequency. GF had a magnificent pilot that went nowhere, and the comic material is fantastic reading but not terribly exciting in terms of dollar value. When these super-spikes hit, it nearly always makes sense to cash in.

Just in case you were wondering, I’ve been reading Rachel Rising from the beginning and it’s not just a pretty Terry Moore face. It’s straight mystery/horror, character driven, and features a really creepy little girl. That’s a little redundant, I know. But she’s creepy. Also, there’s Aunt Johnny. Moore is handling everything but the finances, it comes out on time with a high degree of quality, and I hope he got a bijillion dollars from Alcon because he deserves it.

East of West

East of West # 1 debuted at #35 on the Diamond top 300 for an astonishing 49,518 units. It’s difficult to imagine how strong that result is. That destroyed what Saga opened for, as an example, and THAT was an astonishing result.

I think what’s happening here is that Image has produced enough championship thoroughbreds that the secondary market is beginning to catch up and speculators are inflating these orders. Some of you are thinking that this is just the reality of Jonathan Hickman, but if you look further down the list at # 125 you’ll find Manhattan Projects selling 17,000 copies. Does Nick Dragotta make up the 33,000 copy difference? (He almost does, that East of West art was AWESOME) No, it just doesn’t add up. I would expect a steeper than normal decline on issue # 2, when the speculative riff-raff will have largely disappeared. Ironically, that’s when you should really start to speculate.

Currently, East of West # 1 is trading for $8-$10 a copy. It still might be a good buy at that price, although I might be more inclined to lay a wager with Five Ghosts # 1 if I were betting a tenner. The art on Five Ghosts is also preternaturally good, and it debuted waaaaaay down the list at # 152 and around 13,000 copies.

Marvel NOW!

In case you missed it, Marvel is just eating DCs lunch these days. Doesn’t matter if you count by units, dollars, general enthusiasm, whitest smile, Marvel is winning.

People say that the stories have largely been enjoyable and inspired new interest in these characters. I can’t vouch for this personally, because they mostly cost $4 a pop so I don’t buy them. But all I need to verify this is to look at how many of these issues are going to second and third prints. I don’t get impressed with the sales results of Uncanny Avengers # 1 or Guardians of the Galaxy # 1. It looks like nosebleed territory, but really all that boils down to is bullshit variant covers. Doesn’t impress me.

What does impress me is a second print. Big first orders might be sitting in the quarter box at your LCS. In order to score that second print, two significant achievements have to occur. One, you have to sell the issues you ordered. Two, enough people have to care about what’s happening via word-of-mouth to express an interest in ordering more comics. Most people do not give a rat’s wet arse about anything to the point that they will trouble themselves with placing an order and then waiting weeks for it to arrive. Easier just to say “hell with it.” So those second prints speak volumes to me, and Marvel NOW! books are loaded with second and third prints.

I think it likely that several of these will end up being better-than-average investments. At the top of the list I put Thor: God of Thunder # 4 and most of the early All New X-Men issues. I’ve heard more than one source tout the Jason Aaron Thor book as the finest comic Marvel is producing. Again, can’t verify that, but it certainly doesn’t surprise me.

Some will question the value of collecting such mainstream, high end material but bear in mind that Uncanny X-Force # 4 currently trades for $40-$50 a pop, and it’s an easy sell at that level. Even something like Superior Spider-Man # 1 is trading well above cover price ($10-$15) and that was hardly scarce.

The pundits get it wrong on several levels, actually. They’ll tell you that today’s comics aren’t scarce, and they’re mostly wrong. There are exceptions, but generally speaking today’s comics have the lowest print runs in the medium’s history. The pundits will also tell you that a comic with a higher print run can’t earn a profit, and that’s mostly true. The real key to the game is simple supply-and-demand. If more people want a thing than can have it, prices rise. Listen, DC printed an ASSLOAD of Batman # 1 for the New 52 reboolaunch. I’ll be conservative and guess that the actual number is quarter of a million copies. Doesn’t matter. More than a quarter million people want that book. You can sell your NM Batman # 1 for $40+, and I don’t mean you can slap the price sticker on it and watch it collect dust. A dozen people will be tripping over themselves to purchase it at that price. Unfortunately for DC, Batman is about all they produce that has that effect.

Finally, the pundits like to tell you that everything modern is mint. They’re kinda sorta right about that. After 1980, it certainly gets much easier to find yourself a 9.2 of most any book compared to the Silver/Golden age. Those CGC 9.8s are tough to come by, though, especially now when everybody is going away from the cardstock covers. Take a look at the racks on new comic day…it’s hard to find something NM/MT, and next to impossible to keep it that way, even for just the car ride home. Today’s books are dainty little flowers. But I digest.

I think the point I was getting to was that a lot of people are desperately in love with All New X-Men. Say what you want about Bendis, and I often will, people have responded with overwhelming affection for that title, and each issue continues to go for multiple printings. You can’t bullshit your way into that. The public has to embrace and demand the product for that to happen. I’m sure the Stuart Immonen art isn’t hurting anything, either.

Maybe part of the equation is the fact that All New X-Men comes out every 12 minutes? Whatever the case, finding first prints of anything for # 3-7 is difficult. If you see the red banner on the bottom for early All New X-Men, I think those are insta-buys.

Jupiter’s Legacy

I’m closing with Jupiter’s Legacy, because there is a metric ton of hype surrounding that book. (which one would expect from a Mark Millar production) This time the crazy Scottish git has enlisted Frank Quitely to handle the pencils, so it’s difficult to think of a book currently being published with bigger marquee names.

From a speculation standpoint, though, this one feels like a dud. I’m already hearing tales of 150K pre-orders on the title, so scarcity is out the window. We’ve already covered the fact that demand could still outstrip supply, but I think that would be odd here. Iconic properties like Spider-Man and Batman can withstand big orders, because the established fan base is so large. As a new property, I find it exceedingly difficult to believe that a new property can do that. Every now and again you can briefly catch lightning in a bottle, (see: Chasers, Battle) but in order to achieve long-term success in the secondary market, a new property needs scarcity.

And that’s my story. Somebody tell me how much they like the Marvel NOW! books. And tell me if you like the new hardcovers Marvel is putting out without dust jackets. You can comment below!